The gap between the share of Americans calling themselves Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents and those calling themselves Republicans or Republican-leaning independents is wider than it has been since 2015, according to quarterly averages gathered by Gallup.
The share of Americans saying they are Republicans or Republican-leaning independents in the first quarter of 2026, 39%, is at a low dating back to 2015. However, it has been as low as 40% several times before, as recently as the last quarter in 2025, which is not significantly different.
At the same time, the share of Americans saying they are either Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents has reached 49%, matching highs from the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021.
Democrats have been slightly growing since the two parties were tied in affiliation in the first quarter of 2025, when President Donald Trump returned to the White House, although the shift from the last quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026 is not significant.
In the months since the first quarter of 2025, when 45% said they considered themselves to be part of each party (or independents leaning that way), Democrats have climbed slightly, first to 46%, then to 48%. Republicans have declined steadily, first to 43%, then 41% and 40%.
In the first quarter of 2020, heading into the 2020 election, the two were also tied at 45% each. Over that year, Democrats and leaners continued to grow in share: When President Joe Biden entered the White House in the first quarter of 2021 was the last time there was a difference nearly this large, 49% said they were Democrats or Democratic leaners and 40% were Republicans or Republican leaners.
Overall, most independents lean toward one party or the other, so when not taking into account the independents who lean toward one party or the other, today, 43% are independents, 30% are Democrats and 25% Republicans.
The shares of Americans who consider themselves members of either party has been close for the last several years, with Republicans peaking with 32% in the last quarter of 2022 and Democrats hitting 31% a few times since 2020. More have considered themselves to be independents throughout that time.
The Gallup data includes quarterly averages for party identification throughout each quarter.
